So much hinged on Vice Prez Biden's role at the Munich Security Conference last week - in fact his speech was eagerly anticipated as a catalyst for a new trans-Atlantic partnership and the means to mend the frayed ties between Europe and the USA. So did the Vice Prez's first major international appearance live up to expectations? The jury is clearly out. It certainly wasn't all negative - as evidenced by Europe's shared view that a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. However a scan of the German tabloids reveals justifiable disappointment that there were not clearer signals of real change in foreign policies in the wind. In fact most were asking "what has really changed" especially after Biden made it pretty clear that the basic premise of US foreign policy hasn't changed at all.
The Russians were probably the least impressed. Having earlier heard about US interest in "resetting" the US-Russian relationship, it was arguably what they didn't hear that concerned them the most. They didn't hear of any diminished interest in expanding NATO to include Georgia and Uzbekistan (which would essentially surround Russia with NATO troops). They didn't hear of any intent to forego building US missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic (a program less likely to be foregone now that Iran has tested its own "rocket") and therefore, they really didn't hear much at all that distinguished between the policies of Bush and those of Obama.
The same can be said for the major European allies of Germany and France. When Biden called for more NATO troops in Afghanistan, in support US foreign policy initiatives there, Germany used typically evasive and politically vague terminology to essentially say "no way". When Biden called for the expansion of NATO - both Germany and France, kowtowing to Russian interests, shuffled diplomatic phrases about that amounted to the same thing,- a resounding "no way". These responses wouldn't have been difficult for either Germany or France however, as both were used to responding the same way when these same policy proposals were wheeled out by the Bush administration. So what has changed? The answer is "not much".
Realpolitik has shown its true colors at Munich. Obama can be forgiven for not having changed the world in the few weeks since he took office; but substantial change was promised and it has clearly failed to materialize at the first major opportunity to outline the new administration's foreign policy program. This is less a failing of the new administration, or Obama/Biden specifically, than it is recognition that nation states don't alter their strategic interests easily - and that it is going to take a lot more than stump speech rhetoric to improve the trans-Atlantic partnership. There are limits to what even the Big O can achieve in matters of foreign policy - and through the Munich conference, this lesson appears to be driven home sooner rather later.
